Analysis of the development status of thermal coal industry in September, the price showed the characteristics of "not light in the off-season"
in the first nine months of this year, the domestic thermal coal price showed the characteristics of "not light in the off-season and not busy in the peak season". In the past, from mid April to mid June, this was the traditional off-season demand, but the domestic thermal coal price started the rising mode, once rising above 700 yuan/ton. Since then, entering the peak demand season, the thermal coal market has cooled down, hovering at 680 yuan/ton. The increase in demand in the non power industry and the strengthening of traders' ability to hold inventory have formed a long-term support for the thermal coal market this year; At the same time, the market price of thermal coal in peak season is effectively controlled due to factors such as transportation capacity obstruction and high inventory policy of terminal power plant
the increase in demand of non power industry
has become one of the main reasons for the "off-season" of the thermal coal market this year. Due to the increase in demand of non power industry, the replenishment cycle is different from that of power industry, thus forming a long-term support for the market
at present, China's power coal consumption is mainly concentrated in electricity, followed by steel and cement industries. Benefiting from China's stable economic growth in the first half of the year, fixed asset investment, infrastructure investment and real estate development investment all increased significantly, and the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year, driving the demand for steel to show a significant growth, thereby increasing the consumption of thermal coal in the off-season
in the first half of 2018, the capacity utilization rate of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 77.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points over the same period last year, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 451.16 million tons, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year; China's steel output was 53.85 million tons, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year. In terms of the average daily output of crude steel, it hit new highs in April, may and June
the strong operation of thermal coal prices has led to an increase in the production profits of the overall coal industry.
in recent years, coal production has been further concentrated in the main producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and the voice of pit mouth quotation has been continuously enhanced. Due to the long-term existence of pithead demand, the price of pithead fluctuates at a high level, and the market demand of pithead is stronger than that of port market. At the same time, due to the long-term high profit of the pithead, the output elasticity is enhanced. I hope it can help everyone. The ability of the pithead to cope with market price fluctuations is enhanced
for coal producing areas, the strong operation of thermal coal prices has driven the overall production profits of the coal industry to increase. According to the statistical data of the "analysis report on development trends and investment decisions of the coal industry" released by the forward looking Industry Research Institute, the national raw coal output showed a slight growth trend in June 2018. In June 2018, the national raw coal output was 298.017 million tons, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. In July, 2018, the national raw coal production fell, and in August, 2018, the national raw coal production rebounded; In August 2018, the national raw coal output was 296.602 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. In 2018, the national raw coal output was 2274.782 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. From a macro perspective, the rising trading of coal capacity replacement indicators in many provinces and cities will accelerate the release of high-quality capacity. From the microscopic point of view, the willingness of coal mine sales has increased, and the inventory in the production area has been basically emptied, intensifying the expectation of tight supply in the production area
statistics and growth of national raw coal production from January to August 2018
the most comprehensive results of output
data source: forward looking Industry Research Institute collated
traders' ability to hold inventory increased
this may, this is the traditional off-season demand, but downstream purchasing sentiment is high, and coal prices are rising. Industry insiders said that this phenomenon of "not light in the off-season" is actually an illusion. Many traders just quote but do not ship goods. If they want to wait until the traditional peak season, many people are betting on late prices, purchasing in large quantities, and hoarding coal to rise
in the traditional off-season, the demand gap in the coal market is not large, but the coal is hoarded in the hands of traders, resulting in the current situation of difficult coal procurement in the market. In addition, the power plant purchased in advance for the arrival of the peak season of coal consumption in the later stage, which led to the crazy rise in the coal price of the origin, but it was not based on the real demand
operational factors that drive the lead screw and affect the shear strength: previously, coal prices continued to decline from March to April, and traders who hoard coal suffered serious losses. Many people just quoted prices and did not ship, causing coal prices to continue to rise. Zhang Shuai said that in recent years, with the continuous high coal prices, traders have achieved high profits for a long time, the ability to hold inventory has been enhanced, and the phenomenon of reluctance to sell has occurred frequently, which has significantly supported the port cost
port and railway transport capacity are blocked at the same time.
as an important part of the coal cost, the transportation link is the decisive factor affecting the coal price. Since this year, the major adjustment of transportation pattern has also brought many uncertainties to the fluctuation of coal prices. Zhang Shuai said that the transfer of Qinhuangdao port to Caofeidian port and the policy of "transit to railway" have led to the test of railway and port transport capacity and increased market volatility
the news of "Qin Gang relocation" came out in early March, causing a sensation in the industry. Qinhuangdao port is the supporting coal transportation port of Daqin line. The "relocation of Qinhuangdao Port" means that at least 3-4 coal terminals with a throughput of 50million tons are needed to undertake the current coal business of Qinhuangdao port. On the other hand, Qinhuangdao port is connected with Daqin Railway), which has formed an obvious price advantage with the help of convenient railway transportation advantages. However, the relocation of coal business will weaken the price advantage, which will undoubtedly bring significant fluctuations to the market coal price
in addition, affected by the "transit to rail" policy, the ports of Tangshan, Qinhuangdao and Huanghua will completely ban the transportation of heavy diesel cargo vehicles and turn to railway transportation. It is reported that since the Tianjin Port began to implement the measures of collecting and distributing port coal that prohibit highway transportation in the second half of last year, all underground coal has been completely transported from the railway to the wharf, which poses a greater challenge to the railway transportation capacity. In the next few years, the coal output of Sanxi region will increase by about 100 million tons every year, and the railway coal production and transportation rate will be increased from 60% to 75%. The carrying capacity and dispatching capacity of the railway will directly affect the change of coal prices